Relationship between fine-mode AOD and precipitation on seasonal and interannual time scales

On seasonal and interannual time scales, weather is highly influential in aerosol variability. In this study, we investigate the relationship between fine-mode AOD (fAOD) and precipitation on these scales, in order to unravel the effect of wet weather on aerosol amount. We find with integrated satellite and ground observations that biomass burning related fAOD has a relatively greater seasonal variation than fossil fuel combustion related fAOD. It is also found that wet weather reduces biomass burning fAOD and increases fossil fuel combustion fAOD. Aerosol simulation models forced by reanalyses consistently simulate the biomass burning fAOD reduced during wet weather but only in the tropics and furthermore do not consistently increase fossil fuel combustion fAOD during wet conditions. The identified relationship between fAOD and precipitation in observations allows for seasonal predictability of fAOD, since average precipitation can be predicted a few to several months in advance due to the well-established predictability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We reveal ENSO-covariant fAOD using a rotated component principal analysis of combined interannual variation of sea surface temperature, precipitation and fAOD. During the warm phase of ENSO, we find that fAOD increases over Indonesia and the eastern coastal area of China, and decreases over South Asia, the Amazon and the continental parts of China

A global assessment of forest surface albedo and its relationships with climate and atmospheric nitrogen deposition

We present a global assessment of the relationships between the short-wave surface albedo of forests, derived from the MODIS satellite instrument product at 0.5° spatial resolution, with simulated atmospheric nitrogen deposition rates (Ndep), and climatic variables (mean annual temperature Tm and total annual precipitation P), compiled at the same spatial resolution. The analysis was performed on the following five forest plant functional types (PFTs): evergreen needle-leaf forests (ENF); evergreen broad-leaf forests (EBF); deciduous needle-leaf forests (DNF); deciduous broad-leaf forests (DBF); and mixed-forests (MF). Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied in the exploratory analysis to assess the functional nature of short-wave surface albedo relations to environmental variables. The analysis showed evident correlations of albedo with environmental predictors when data were pooled across PFTs: Tm and Ndep displayed a positive relationship with forest albedo, while a negative relationship was detected with P. These correlations are primarily due to surface albedo differences between conifer and broad-leaf species, and different species geographical distributions. However, the analysis performed within individual PFTs, strengthened by attempts to select ‘pure’ pixels in terms of species composition, showed significant correlations with annual precipitation and nitrogen deposition, pointing toward the potential effect of environmental variables on forest surface albedo at the ecosystem level. Overall, our global assessment emphasizes the importance of elucidating the ecological mechanisms that link environmental conditions and forest canopy properties for an improved parameterization of surface albedo in climate models

Model-Based Estimation of Sampling-Caused Uncertainty in Aerosol Remote Sensing for Climate Research Applications

To evaluate the effect of sampling frequency on the global monthly mean aerosol optical thickness (AOT), we use 6 years of geographical coordinates of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) L2 aerosol data, daily global aerosol fields generated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model and the chemical transport models Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport, Spectral Radiationtransport Model for Aerosol Species and Transport Model 5, at a spatial resolution between 1.125 deg 1.125 deg and 2 deg 3: the analysis is restricted to 60 deg S-60 deg N geographical latitude. We found that, in general, the MODIS coverage causes an underestimate of the global mean AOT over the ocean. The long-term mean absolute monthly difference between all and dark target (DT) pixels was 0.01-0.02 over the ocean and 0.03-0.09 over the land, depending on the model dataset. Negative DT biases peak during boreal summers, reaching 0.07-0.12 (30-45% of the global long-term mean AOT). Addition of the Deep Blue pixels tempers the seasonal dependence of the DT biases and reduces the mean AOT difference over land by 0.01-0.02. These results provide a quantitative measure of the effect the pixel exclusion due to cloud contamination, ocean sun-glint and land type has on the MODIS estimates of the global monthly mean AOT. We also simulate global monthly mean AOT estimates from measurements provided by pixel-wide along-track instruments such as the Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor and the Cloud-Aerosol LiDAR with Orthogonal Polarization. We estimate the probable range of the global AOT standard error for an along-track sensor to be 0.0005-0.0015 (ocean) and 0.0029-0.01 (land) or 0.5-1.2% and 1.1-4% of the corresponding global means. These estimates represent errors due to sampling only and do not include potential retrieval errors. They are smaller than or comparable to the published estimate of 0.01 as being a climatologically significant change in the global mean AOT, suggesting that sampling density is unlikely to limit the use of such instruments for climate applications at least on a global, monthly scale

Description and evaluation of a secondary organic aerosol and new particle formation scheme within TM5-MP v1.2

We have implemented and evaluated a secondary organic aerosol scheme within the chemistry transport model TM5-MP in this work. In earlier versions of TM5-MP the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) was emitted as Aitken-sized particle mass emulating the condensation. In the current scheme we simulate the formation of secondary organic aerosol from oxidation of isoprene and monoterpenes by ozone and hydroxyl radicals, which produce semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) and extremely low-volatility compounds (EVOCs). Subsequently, SVOCs and ELVOCs can condense on particles. Furthermore, we have introduced a new particle formation mechanism depending on the concentration of ELVOCs. For evaluation purposes, we have simulated the year 2010 with the old and new scheme; we see an increase in simulated production of SOA from 39.9 Tg yr(-1) with the old scheme to 52.5 Tg yr(-1) with the new scheme. For more detailed analysis, the particle mass and number concentrations and their influence on the simulated aerosol optical depth are compared to observations. Phenomenologically, the new particle formation scheme implemented here is able to reproduce the occurrence of observed particle formation events. However, the modelled concentrations of formed particles are clearly lower than in observations, as is the subsequent growth to larger sizes. Com - pared to the old scheme, the new scheme increases the number concentrations across the observation stations while still underestimating the observations. The organic aerosol mass concentrations in the US show a much better seasonal cycle and no clear overestimation of mass concentrations anymore. In Europe the mass concentrations are lowered, leading to a larger underestimation of observations. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) is generally slightly increased except in the northern high latitudes. This brings the simulated annual global mean AOD closer to the observational estimate. However, as the increase is rather uniform, biases tend to be reduced only in regions where the model underestimates the AOD. Furthermore, the correlations with satellite retrievals and ground-based sun-photometer observations of AOD are improved. Although the process-based approach to SOA formation causes a reduction in model performance in some areas, overall the new scheme improves the simulated aerosol fields.Peer reviewe

Large difference in aerosol radiative effects from BVOC-SOA treatment in three Earth system models

Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emitted from vegetation are oxidised in the atmosphere and can form aerosol particles either by contributing to new particle formation or by condensing onto existing aerosol particles. As the understanding of the importance of BVOCs for aerosol formation has increased over the years, these processes have made their way into Earth system models (ESMs). In this study, sensitivity experiments are run with three different ESMs (the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM), EC-Earth and ECHAM) to investigate how the direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects are affected by changes in the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from BVOCs. In the first two sensitivity model experiments, the yields of SOA precursors from oxidation of BVOCs are changed by ±50 %. For the third sensitivity test, the formed oxidation products do not participate in the formation of new particles but are only allowed to condense onto existing aerosols. In the last two sensitivity experiments, the emissions of BVOC compounds (isoprene and monoterpenes) are turned off, one at a time. The goal of the study is to investigate whether it is of importance to treat SOA formation processes correctly in the models rather than to evaluate the correctness of the current treatment in the models. The results show that the impact on the direct radiative effect (DRE) is linked to the changes in the SOA production in the models, where more SOA leads to a stronger DRE and vice versa. However, the magnitude by which the DRE changes (maximally 0.15 W m-2 globally averaged) in response to the SOA changes varies between the models, with EC-Earth displaying the largest changes. The results for the cloud radiative effects (CREs) are more complicated than for the DRE. The changes in CRE differ more among the ESMs, and for some sensitivity experiments they even have different signs. The most sensitive models are NorESM and EC-Earth, which have CRE changes of up to 0.82 W m-2. The varying responses in the different models are connected to where in the aerosol size distributions the changes in mass and number due to SOA formation occur, in combination with the aerosol number concentration levels in the models. We also find that interactive gas-phase chemistry as well as the new particle formation parameterisation has important implications for the DRE and CRE in some of the sensitivity experiments. The results from this study indicate that BVOC-SOA treatment in ESMs can have a substantial impact on the modelled climate but that the sensitivity varies greatly between the models. Since BVOC emissions have changed historically and will continue to change in the future, the spread in model results found in this study implies uncertainty into ESM estimates of aerosol forcing from land-use change and BVOC feedback strengths. © Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License

Large difference in aerosol radiative effects from BVOC-SOA treatment in three Earth system models

Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emitted from vegetation are oxidised in the atmosphere and can form aerosol particles either by contributing to new particle formation or by condensing onto existing aerosol particles. As the understanding of the importance of BVOCs for aerosol formation has increased over the years, these processes have made their way into Earth system models (ESMs). In this study, sensitivity experiments are run with three different ESMs (the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM), EC-Earth and ECHAM) to investigate how the direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects are affected by changes in the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from BVOCs. In the first two sensitivity model experiments, the yields of SOA precursors from oxidation of BVOCs are changed by +/- 50 %. For the third sensitivity test, the formed oxidation products do not participate in the formation of new particles but are only allowed to condense onto existing aerosols. In the last two sensitivity experiments, the emissions of BVOC compounds (isoprene and monoterpenes) are turned off, one at a time. The goal of the study is to investigate whether it is of importance to treat SOA formation processes correctly in the models rather than to evaluate the correctness of the current treatment in the models. The results show that the impact on the direct radiative effect (DRE) is linked to the changes in the SOA production in the models, where more SOA leads to a stronger DRE and vice versa. However, the magnitude by which the DRE changes (maximally 0.15 W m(-2) globally averaged) in response to the SOA changes varies between the models, with EC-Earth displaying the largest changes. The results for the cloud radiative effects (CREs) are more complicated than for the DRE. The changes in CRE differ more among the ESMs, and for some sensitivity experiments they even have different signs. The most sensitive models are NorESM and EC-Earth, which have CRE changes of up to 0.82 W m(-2). The varying responses in the different models are connected to where in the aerosol size distributions the changes in mass and number due to SOA formation occur, in combination with the aerosol number concentration levels in the models. We also find that interactive gas-phase chemistry as well as the new particle formation parameterisation has important implications for the DRE and CRE in some of the sensitivity experiments. The results from this study indicate that BVOC-SOA treatment in ESMs can have a substantial impact on the modelled climate but that the sensitivity varies greatly between the models. Since BVOC emissions have changed historically and will continue to change in the future, the spread in model results found in this study implies uncertainty into ESM estimates of aerosol forcing from land-use change and BVOC feedback strengths.Peer reviewe

EC-Earth3-AerChem : a global climate model with interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry participating in CMIP6

This paper documents the global climate model EC-Earth3-AerChem, one of the members of the EC-Earth3 family of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). EC-Earth3-AerChem has interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry and contributes to the Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). In this paper, we give an overview of the model, describe in detail how it differs from the other EC-Earth3 configurations, and outline the new features compared with the previously documented version of the model (EC-Earth 2.4). We explain how the model was tuned and spun up under preindustrial conditions and characterize the model's general performance on the basis of a selection of coupled simulations conducted for CMIP6. The net energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere in the preindustrial control simulation is on average 0.09 Wm(-2) with a standard deviation due to interannual variability of 0.25 Wm(-2), showing no significant drift. The global surface air temperature in the simulation is on average 14.08 degrees C with an interannual standard deviation of 0.17 degrees C, exhibiting a small drift of 0.015 +/- 0.005 degrees C per century. The model's effective equilibrium climate sensitivity is estimated at 3.9 degrees C, and its transient climate response is estimated at 2.1 degrees C. The CMIP6 historical simulation displays spurious interdecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere temperatures, resulting in a large spread across ensemble members and a tendency to underestimate observed annual surface temperature anomalies from the early 20th century onwards. The observed warming of the Southern Hemisphere is well reproduced by the model. Compared with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), the surface air temperature climatology for 1995-2014 has an average bias of -0.86 +/- 0.05 degrees C with a standard deviation across ensemble members of 0.35 degrees C in the North-ern Hemisphere and 1.29 +/- 0.02 degrees C with a corresponding standard deviation of 0.05 degrees C in the Southern Hemisphere. The Southern Hemisphere warm bias is largely caused by errors in shortwave cloud radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, a deficiency of many climate models. Changes in the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) have significant effects on the global climate from the second half of the 20th century onwards. For the SSP3-7.0 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, the model gives a global warming at the end of the 21st century (2091-2100) of 4.9 degrees C above the preindustrial mean. A 0.5 degrees C stronger warming is obtained for the AerChemMIP scenario with reduced emissions of NTCFs. With concurrent reductions of future methane concentrations, the warming is projected to be reduced by 0.5 degrees C.Peer reviewe

EC-Earth3-AerChem: a global climate model with interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry participating in CMIP6

This paper documents the global climate model EC-Earth3-AerChem, one of the members of the EC-Earth3 family of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). EC-Earth3-AerChem has interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry and contributes to the Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). In this paper, we give an overview of the model, describe in detail how it differs from the other EC-Earth3 configurations, and outline the new features compared with the previously documented version of the model (EC-Earth 2.4). We explain how the model was tuned and spun up under preindustrial conditions and characterize the model's general performance on the basis of a selection of coupled simulations conducted for CMIP6. The net energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere in the preindustrial control simulation is on average −0.09 W m−2 with a standard deviation due to interannual variability of 0.25 W m−2, showing no significant drift. The global surface air temperature in the simulation is on average 14.08 ∘C with an interannual standard deviation of 0.17 ∘C, exhibiting a small drift of 0.015 ± 0.005 ∘C per century. The model's effective equilibrium climate sensitivity is estimated at 3.9 ∘C, and its transient climate response is estimated at 2.1 ∘C. The CMIP6 historical simulation displays spurious interdecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere temperatures, resulting in a large spread across ensemble members and a tendency to underestimate observed annual surface temperature anomalies from the early 20th century onwards. The observed warming of the Southern Hemisphere is well reproduced by the model. Compared with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), the surface air temperature climatology for 1995–2014 has an average bias of −0.86 ± 0.05 ∘C with a standard deviation across ensemble members of 0.35 ∘C in the Northern Hemisphere and 1.29 ± 0.02 ∘C with a corresponding standard deviation of 0.05 ∘C in the Southern Hemisphere. The Southern Hemisphere warm bias is largely caused by errors in shortwave cloud radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, a deficiency of many climate models. Changes in the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) have significant effects on the global climate from the second half of the 20th century onwards. For the SSP3-7.0 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, the model gives a global warming at the end of the 21st century (2091–2100) of 4.9 ∘C above the preindustrial mean. A 0.5 ∘C stronger warming is obtained for the AerChemMIP scenario with reduced emissions of NTCFs. With concurrent reductions of future methane concentrations, the warming is projected to be reduced by 0.5 ∘C

Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models

Funder: Hadley CentreFunder: BEISFunder: NERCFunder: Met Office; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000847Funder: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001691Funder: Public Investment Program of the Ministry of Development and Investments of GreeceAbstract: This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of −0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C−1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from −0.2 to −2 ppbv °C−1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C−1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios

Significant climate benefits from near-term climate forcer mitigation in spite of aerosol reductions

Near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), including aerosols and chemically reactive gases such as tropospheric ozone and methane, offer a potential way to mitigate climate change and improve air quality-so called "win-win" mitigation policies. Prior studies support improved air quality under NTCF mitigation, but with conflicting climate impacts that range from a significant reduction in the rate of global warming to only a modest impact. Here, we use state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model simulations conducted as part of the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison project (AerChemMIP) to quantify the 21st-century impact of NTCF reductions, using a realistic future emission scenario with a consistent air quality policy. Non-methane NTCF (NMNTCF; aerosols and ozone precursors) mitigation improves air quality, but leads to significant increases in global mean precipitation of 1.3% by mid-century and 1.4% by end-of-the-century, and corresponding surface warming of 0.23 and 0.21 K. NTCF (all-NTCF; including methane) mitigation further improves air quality, with larger reductions of up to 45% for ozone pollution, while offsetting half of the wetting by mid-century (0.7% increase) and all the wetting by end-of-the-century (non-significant 0.1% increase) and leading to surface cooling of -0.15 K by mid-century and -0.50 K by end-of-the-century. This suggests that methane mitigation offsets warming induced from reductions in NMNTCFs, while also leading to net improvements in air quality